posted Jul 31st, 2011 - The rainiest summer in Germany, ever since archiving of weather data was started in 1945, continues to keep the skydivers on the ground in Merseburg. It's time to break camp in this part of Germany and move to sunnier areas. Saarlouis, hosting site of the World Cup 2011, seems to be a much better place for skydiving these days...

It is getting dangerously close to the start of the competition on Tuesday morning, and the teams that have arrived are busy getting their warmup jumps out of the way. The NSL News will begin with the live coverage from Saarlouis at the end of the day or tomorrow morning.

In the meantime, it is worthwhile taking a closer look at the situation in the female 4way category after the Golden Knights delegation has moved from Brazil to Germany. The Golden Knights Gold lineup won bronze medals at the CISM Championship, and the female lineup brought the gold medals to Germany.

CISM 2011		Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7	Round 8	Total	Avg
Rank	4-way Women	M,F,H,19	M,B,G,22	M,P,E,13	M,K,O,4	M,Cat,C,11	M,L,J,10	M,Q,N,21	M,A,D,7	Total	Avg
1	USA Golden Knights	29	24	25	22	22	24	24	27	197	24.6
2	France	26	18	25	24	20	20	24	23	180	22.5
3	Brazil Fenix	17	18	20	19	19	19	19	21	152	19.0
4	China	19	16	18	21	19	18	19	19	149	18.6

The results of the CISM Championship indicate that the US lineup in the female 4way category is stronger than it may have been expected. It will not surprise coach and 8way team captain Brian "BK" Krause who mentioned earlier this year that he has a very strong women's team this year. But how strong is it, and will the Golden Knights even be able to challenge the French team, the Aerodyne Deep Blue Defenders?

It is very difficult to use the 24.6 average in Brazil to estimate the scoring level for the complete IPC dive pool and the Open Class rules. However, the scores of the Brazilian team Fenix and of other teams that have competed at IPC/NSL meets earlier this year could be helpful. Fenix averaged 8.3 out of the three meets before finishing with 19.0 at the CISM, scoring roughly 2.3 times higher.

There are also the CISM teams in the male category which provide similar data: NMP-PCH Hayabusa (24.2 - 36.0 = 1.5), X-Dogs (13.4 - 25.6 = 1.9), Qatar Falcons (11.5 - 20.1 = 1.8), Fast Air (11.7 - 19.4 = 1.7). This data supports the wild guess that the meet average at the CISM is approx. 1.8 times higher than the meet average at an IPC/NSL competition.

According to this average formula, the female lineup of the Golden Knights would perform on a 13.7 level. The 1.5 factor of the highest scoring team, Hayabusa, would bring the Golden Knights up to a 16.4 average. The lowest scoring team, Fenix (2.3), would bring the Golden Knights to a 10.7 average.

The truth is probably much closer to the Hayabusa numbers since the US team is also well trained with the IPC dive pool. In other words, it would not be a surprise to see the Golden Knights at a 17-average level in Saarlouis. That would not be enough to challenge the French team for the gold medals. However, it could bring the US team to the level of medal contention in the female category.

It is difficult to guess which set of medals will be in reach for the Golden Knights. It could be a tight field in the race for the silver and bronze medal positions. Or do the other teams even have a chance to get close to the French team? The polls are open, and we will know more after Round 1 on Tuesday.

World Cup 2011 - 4way Women
Who is going to win?	France (Aerodyne Deep Blue Defenders) Norway (Polaris) Russia (Illusions) USA (Golden Knights) Great Britain (Aerodyne Bodyflight)
	Current Results